Natural hazards · Fair Oaks

Fair Oaks, VA natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in Fair Oaks comes from inland flooding, and overall the risk is very low for a U.S. community. Flood insurance has paid 2 claims here since 2014.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations

Expected damage

How exposed is Fair Oaks?

Very low

vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in Fair Oaks to be higher than in 11% of U.S. communities, mostly from inland flooding.

Inland flooding65%Hurricanes10%Heat waves7%Earthquakes5%Everything else13%

By hazard

What Fair Oaks faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Inland flooding

65% of expected damage

Well below average · higher than 24% of U.S. places

Recorded about 6 times a year in the area

Hurricanes

10% of expected damage

Above average · higher than 74% of U.S. places

Recorded about once every 10 years in the area

Heat waves

7% of expected damage

Below average · higher than 49% of U.S. places

Recorded about 6 times a year in the area

Earthquakes

5% of expected damage

Below average · higher than 48% of U.S. places

Lower here

TornadoesHailIce stormsWinter weatherCold wavesWildfireLandslidesStrong windLightning

Not a risk here

Coastal floodingDroughtAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.

Flood insurance claims

Does Fair Oaks flood?

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Fair Oaks, from FEMA’s records.

2paid claims since 2014

$3Kpaid to owners

0homes flooded more than once

20142026

Biggest named events

Mid-spring storms: 1 claim, $1K

of homes in flood zones
are insured

of all homes
are insured

No community discount. Fair Oaks isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Fairfax County.

Disasters that hit Fair Oaks

Federal disasters declared here

None of the disasters declared for Fairfax County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Fair Oaks itself in FEMA’s records.

Brought FEMA money into Fair OaksDeclared for Fairfax County only

Fairfax County has had 17 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often winter storms and hurricanes.

Around Fair Oaks

Fair Oaks and the towns around it

Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

Fair Lakesmostly inland floodingLow

Navymostly inland floodingLow

Difficult Runmostly inland floodingVery low

Oaktonmostly inland floodingVery low

Fairfaxmostly inland floodingVery low

Fair Oaksmostly inland floodingVery low

George Masonmostly inland floodingVery low

About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.

Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. Fair Oaks covers 7 census tracts, combined by population.

Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to Fair Oaks’s own flood-insurance community (here, the census tracts inside it); household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to Fair Oaks. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across Fair Oaks total about $4.9M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.