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Natural hazards · Fairfax

Fairfax, VA natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in Fairfax comes from inland flooding, and overall the risk is very low for a U.S. community. Flood insurance has paid 35 claims here since 1978. 8 federal disasters brought FEMA money into town.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations
Expected damage

How exposed is Fairfax?

12
Very low
vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in Fairfax to be higher than in 12% of U.S. communities, mostly from inland flooding.

Inland flooding52%Strong wind8%Hurricanes8%Heat waves8%Earthquakes8%Tornadoes8%Everything else8%
By hazard

What Fairfax faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Inland flooding

52% of expected damage
Well below average · higher than 18% of U.S. places
Recorded about once a year in the area

Strong wind

8% of expected damage
Well above average · higher than 86% of U.S. places
Recorded about 8 times a year in the area

Hurricanes

8% of expected damage
Above average · higher than 72% of U.S. places
Recorded about once every 10 years in the area

Heat waves

8% of expected damage
Below average · higher than 49% of U.S. places
Recorded about 6 times a year in the area

Earthquakes

8% of expected damage
Above average · higher than 57% of U.S. places

Tornadoes

8% of expected damage
Above average · higher than 51% of U.S. places

Lower here

HailIce stormsWinter weatherCold wavesWildfireLandslidesLightning

Not a risk here

Coastal floodingDroughtAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity
Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Flood insurance claims

Does Fairfax flood?

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Fairfax, from FEMA’s records.

35paid claims since 1978
$952Kpaid to owners
5homes flooded more than once
19782026

Biggest named events

  • Tropical Storm Ernesto: 1 claim, $35K
  • Hurricane Floyd: 1 claim, $8K

Homes that flooded again and again

■ FEMA “severe repetitive loss” (0) ■ flooded 2+ times

of all homes
are insured
No community discount. Fairfax isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: the county.
Disasters that hit Fairfax

8 federal disasters brought FEMA money here

Disasters the President declared that paid out in Fairfax itself: aid to households, or repair grants to the City of Fairfax.

Brought FEMA money into FairfaxDeclared for the county only
2016

Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm

$237K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
2012

Hurricane Sandy

$127K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
2012

Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds

$169K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
2010

Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms

$136K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
2009

Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm

$94K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
2003

Hurricane Isabel

40 households applied for aid $7K aid approved $181K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
2003

Severe Winter Storm, Record/Near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,floodind, and Mudslide

$70K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
2000

Severe Winter Storms

$92K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
the county has had 14 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often winter storms and hurricanes.
Around Fairfax

Fairfax and the towns around it

George Mason: Very low, mostly inland floodingOakton: Very low, mostly inland floodingMantua: Low, mostly inland floodingLong Branch: Very low, mostly inland floodingFair Oaks: Very low, mostly inland floodingMerrifield: Very low, mostly inland floodingBraddock: Low, mostly inland floodingKings Park West: Low, mostly inland floodingDifficult Run: Very low, mostly inland floodingVienna: Low, mostly inland floodingWolf Trap: Low, mostly inland floodingWoodburn: Very low, mostly inland floodingWakefield: Very low, mostly inland floodingBurke: Low, mostly inland floodingFair Lakes: Low, mostly inland floodingNavy: Low, mostly inland floodingDunn Loring: Very low, mostly inland floodingIdylwood: Very low, mostly inland floodingWest Falls Church: Very low, mostly inland floodingFairfax: Very low, mostly inland flooding FairfaxGeorge MasonOaktonMantuaLong BranchFair OaksMerrifield
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high
Mantuamostly inland floodingLow
Oaktonmostly inland floodingVery low
Fairfaxmostly inland floodingVery low
Fair Oaksmostly inland floodingVery low
Long Branchmostly inland floodingVery low
Merrifieldmostly inland floodingVery low
George Masonmostly inland floodingVery low
About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.
Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. Fairfax covers 5 census tracts, combined by population.
Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to Fairfax’s own flood-insurance community; household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to the City of Fairfax. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across Fairfax total about $4.8M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.

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Boundary source: https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/Places_CouSub_ConCity_SubMCD/MapServer/18 · 2025-01-01
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