Natural hazards · Surprise

Surprise, AZ natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in Surprise comes from inland flooding, and overall the risk is moderate for a U.S. community. Flood insurance has paid 1 claim here since 2003. 1 federal disaster brought FEMA money into town.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations

Expected damage

How exposed is Surprise?

Moderate

vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in Surprise to be higher than in 59% of U.S. communities, mostly from inland flooding and heat waves.

Inland flooding49%Heat waves47%Everything else4%

By hazard

What Surprise faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Inland flooding

49% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 83% of U.S. places

Recorded about 8 times a year in the area

Heat waves

47% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 84% of U.S. places

Recorded about 23 times a year in the area

Lower here

HurricanesTornadoesHailWinter weatherWildfireEarthquakesLandslidesStrong windLightningDrought

Not a risk here

Coastal floodingIce stormsCold wavesAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.

Flood insurance claims

Does Surprise flood?

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Surprise, from FEMA’s records.

1paid claims since 2003

$15Kpaid to owners

0homes flooded more than once

20032026

of homes in flood zones
are insured

of all homes
are insured

No community discount. Surprise isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Maricopa County.

Disasters that hit Surprise

1 federal disaster brought FEMA money here

Disasters the President declared that paid out in Surprise itself: aid to households, or repair grants to the City of Surprise.

Brought FEMA money into SurpriseDeclared for Maricopa County only

2014

Severe Storms and Flooding

$296K to the City of Surprise for repairs

Maricopa County has had 23 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often fires and floods.

Around Surprise

Surprise and the towns around it

Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

El Miragemostly inland floodingVery high

Sun City Westmostly inland floodingHigh

Peoriamostly inland floodingHigh

Wittmannmostly heat wavesHigh

Sun Citymostly inland floodingHigh

Glendalemostly inland floodingHigh

Surprisemostly inland floodingModerate

Buckeyemostly heat wavesModerate

About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.

Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. Surprise covers 26 census tracts, combined by population.

Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to Surprise’s own flood-insurance community; household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to the City of Surprise. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across Surprise total about $58.9M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.