Natural hazards · Lake Barcroft

Lake Barcroft, VA natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in Lake Barcroft comes from inland flooding, and overall the risk is low for a U.S. community. Flood insurance has paid 14 claims here since 2003.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations

Expected damage

How exposed is Lake Barcroft?

Low

vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in Lake Barcroft to be higher than in 34% of U.S. communities, mostly from inland flooding.

Inland flooding73%Earthquakes8%Hurricanes7%Everything else13%

By hazard

What Lake Barcroft faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Inland flooding

73% of expected damage

Above average · higher than 56% of U.S. places

Recorded about 6 times a year in the area

Earthquakes

8% of expected damage

Above average · higher than 62% of U.S. places

Hurricanes

7% of expected damage

Above average · higher than 74% of U.S. places

Recorded about once every 10 years in the area

Lower here

TornadoesHailIce stormsWinter weatherCold wavesHeat wavesWildfireLandslidesStrong windLightning

Not a risk here

Coastal floodingDroughtAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.

Flood insurance claims

Does Lake Barcroft flood?

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Lake Barcroft, from FEMA’s records.

14paid claims since 2003

$275Kpaid to owners

0homes flooded more than once

20032026

of homes in flood zones
are insured

of all homes
are insured

No community discount. Lake Barcroft isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Fairfax County.

Disasters that hit Lake Barcroft

Federal disasters declared here

None of the disasters declared for Fairfax County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Lake Barcroft itself in FEMA’s records.

Brought FEMA money into Lake BarcroftDeclared for Fairfax County only

Fairfax County has had 17 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often winter storms and hurricanes.

Around Lake Barcroft

Lake Barcroft and the towns around it

Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

Lake Barcroftmostly inland floodingLow

West Falls Churchmostly inland floodingVery low

Annandalemostly inland floodingVery low

Bailey's Crossroadsmostly inland floodingVery low

Seven Cornersmostly inland floodingVery low

About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.

Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. Lake Barcroft covers 3 census tracts, combined by population.

Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to Lake Barcroft’s own flood-insurance community (here, the census tracts inside it); household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to Lake Barcroft. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across Lake Barcroft total about $1.6M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.