Natural hazards · Bull Run

Bull Run, VA natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in Bull Run comes from inland flooding, and overall the risk is very low for a U.S. community.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations

Expected damage

How exposed is Bull Run?

Very low

vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in Bull Run to be higher than in 12% of U.S. communities, mostly from inland flooding.

Inland flooding54%Heat waves12%Tornadoes9%Hurricanes8%Earthquakes6%Everything else12%

By hazard

What Bull Run faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Inland flooding

54% of expected damage

Well below average · higher than 22% of U.S. places

Recorded about 3 times a year in the area

Heat waves

12% of expected damage

Below average · higher than 49% of U.S. places

Recorded about 6 times a year in the area

Tornadoes

9% of expected damage

Below average · higher than 45% of U.S. places

Hurricanes

8% of expected damage

Above average · higher than 70% of U.S. places

Recorded about once every 12 years in the area

Earthquakes

6% of expected damage

Above average · higher than 54% of U.S. places

Lower here

HailIce stormsWinter weatherCold wavesWildfireLandslidesStrong windLightning

Not a risk here

Coastal floodingDroughtAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.

Flood insurance claims

Does Bull Run flood?

FEMA's records show no paid flood insurance claims in Bull Run.

of homes in flood zones
are insured

of all homes
are insured

No community discount. Bull Run isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Prince William County.

Disasters that hit Bull Run

Federal disasters declared here

None of the disasters declared for Prince William County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Bull Run itself in FEMA’s records.

Brought FEMA money into Bull RunDeclared for Prince William County only

Prince William County has had 17 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often winter storms and hurricanes.

About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.

Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. Bull Run covers 3 census tracts, combined by population.

Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to Bull Run’s own flood-insurance community; household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to Bull Run. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across Bull Run total about $1.7M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.