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Natural hazards · Chapel Hill

Chapel Hill, NC natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in Chapel Hill comes from inland flooding, and overall the risk is moderate for a U.S. community. Flood insurance has paid 384 claims here since 1978. 9 federal disasters brought FEMA money into town.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations
Expected damage

How exposed is Chapel Hill?

58
Moderate
vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in Chapel Hill to be higher than in 58% of U.S. communities, mostly from inland flooding.

Inland flooding66%Tornadoes12%Hurricanes7%Everything else16%
By hazard

What Chapel Hill faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Inland flooding

66% of expected damage
Well above average · higher than 77% of U.S. places
Recorded about once a year in the area

Tornadoes

12% of expected damage
Above average · higher than 65% of U.S. places

Hurricanes

7% of expected damage
Well above average · higher than 80% of U.S. places
Recorded about once every 8 years in the area

Lower here

HailIce stormsWinter weatherCold wavesHeat wavesWildfireEarthquakesLandslidesStrong windLightning

Not a risk here

Coastal floodingDroughtAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity
Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Flood insurance claims

Does Chapel Hill flood?

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Chapel Hill, from FEMA’s records.

384paid claims since 1978
$31.6Mpaid to owners
51homes flooded more than once
19782026

Biggest named events

  • 2025 July TS Chantal: 115 claims, $16.2M
  • Hurricane Florence: 64 claims, $5.3M
  • Hurricane Fran: 28 claims, $422K

Homes that flooded again and again

■ FEMA “severe repetitive loss” (13) ■ flooded 2+ times

of homes in flood zones
are insured
of all homes
are insured
No community discount. Chapel Hill isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Orange County.

What’s been done with FEMA grants

20flood-prone properties bought out and cleared
Disasters that hit Chapel Hill

9 federal disasters brought FEMA money here

Disasters the President declared that paid out in Chapel Hill itself: aid to households, or repair grants to the Town of Chapel Hill.

Brought FEMA money into Chapel HillDeclared for Orange County only
2025

Tropical Depression Chantal

$893K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
2018

Tropical Storm Michael

$83K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
2018

Hurricane Florence

93 households applied for aid $250K aid approved $340K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
2014

Severe Winter Storm

$85K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
2003

Hurricane Isabel

$231K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
2003

Ice Storm

$941 to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
2002

Severe Ice Storm

$1.1M to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
2000

Severe Winter Storm

$58K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
1999

Hurricane Floyd Major Disaster Declarations

$21K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
Orange County has had 22 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often hurricanes and winter storms.
Around Chapel Hill

Chapel Hill and the towns around it

Carrboro: High, mostly inland floodingDurham: Moderate, mostly inland floodingGorman: Moderate, mostly inland floodingRaleigh: Moderate, mostly inland floodingMorrisville: Low, mostly inland floodingCary: Moderate, mostly inland floodingChapel Hill: Moderate, mostly inland flooding Chapel HillCarrboroDurham
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high
Carrboromostly inland floodingHigh
Chapel Hillmostly inland floodingModerate
Durhammostly inland floodingModerate
About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.
Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. Chapel Hill covers 15 census tracts, combined by population.
Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to Chapel Hill’s own flood-insurance community; household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to the Town of Chapel Hill. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across Chapel Hill total about $17.9M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.

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