Natural hazards · San Rafael

San Rafael, CA natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in San Rafael comes from earthquakes, and overall the risk is very high for a U.S. community. Flood insurance has paid 454 claims here since 1978. 6 federal disasters brought FEMA money into town.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations

Expected damage

How exposed is San Rafael?

Very high

vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in San Rafael to be higher than in 94% of U.S. communities, mostly from earthquakes and inland flooding.

Earthquakes49%Inland flooding34%Coastal flooding13%Everything else4%

By hazard

What San Rafael faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Earthquakes

49% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 94% of U.S. places

Inland flooding

34% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 88% of U.S. places

Recorded about 2 times a year in the area

Coastal flooding

13% of expected damage

Well above average · among the top 1% of U.S. places

Lower here

TornadoesHailWinter weatherHeat wavesWildfireLandslidesStrong windLightningDroughtTsunamisVolcanic activity

Not a risk here

HurricanesIce stormsCold wavesAvalanches

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.

Flood insurance claims

Does San Rafael flood?

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in San Rafael, from FEMA’s records.

454paid claims since 1978

$6.8Mpaid to owners

46homes flooded more than once

19782026

Biggest named events

Pineapple Express - Southern: 50 claims, $1.1M
California Atmospheric River: 5 claims, $221K
Winter storm: 1 claim, $9K

Homes that flooded again and again

■ FEMA “severe repetitive loss” (7) ■ flooded 2+ times

of homes in flood zones
are insured

of all homes
are insured

No community discount. San Rafael isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Marin County.

What’s been done with FEMA grants

2buildings floodproofed

Disasters that hit San Rafael

6 federal disasters brought FEMA money here

Disasters the President declared that paid out in San Rafael itself: aid to households, or repair grants to the City of San Rafael.

Brought FEMA money into San RafaelDeclared for Marin County only

2023

Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides

$79K to the City of San Rafael for repairs

2022

Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides

$49K to the City of San Rafael for repairs

2019

Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides

$87K to the City of San Rafael for repairs

2017

Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides

$2.0M to the City of San Rafael for repairs

2006

Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides

$49K to the City of San Rafael for repairs

2005

Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Landslides

40 households applied for aid $65K aid approved $515K to the City of San Rafael for repairs

Marin County has had 22 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often floods and severe storms.

Around San Rafael

San Rafael and the towns around it

Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

Santa Venetiamostly coastal floodingVery high

Rossmostly inland floodingVery high

San Anselmomostly inland floodingVery high

San Rafaelmostly earthquakesVery high

Larkspurmostly earthquakesVery high

Kentfieldmostly earthquakesVery high

Richmondmostly earthquakesVery high

Sleepy Hollowmostly inland floodingVery high

Lucas Valley-Marinwoodmostly inland floodingVery high

About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.

Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. San Rafael covers 13 census tracts, combined by population.

Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to San Rafael’s own flood-insurance community; household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to the City of San Rafael. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across San Rafael total about $56.5M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.