Natural hazards · Modesto

Modesto, CA natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in Modesto comes from inland flooding, and overall the risk is high for a U.S. community. Flood insurance has paid 41 claims here since 1982. 5 federal disasters brought FEMA money into town.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations

Expected damage

How exposed is Modesto?

High

vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in Modesto to be higher than in 69% of U.S. communities, mostly from inland flooding and earthquakes.

Inland flooding51%Earthquakes43%Everything else6%

By hazard

What Modesto faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Inland flooding

51% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 76% of U.S. places

Recorded about once every 2 years in the area

Earthquakes

43% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 86% of U.S. places

Lower here

TornadoesHailWinter weatherHeat wavesWildfireLandslidesStrong windLightningDroughtVolcanic activity

Not a risk here

Coastal floodingHurricanesIce stormsCold wavesAvalanchesTsunamis

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.

Flood insurance claims

Does Modesto flood?

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Modesto, from FEMA’s records.

41paid claims since 1982

$1.7Mpaid to owners

6homes flooded more than once

19822026

Biggest named events

Pineapple Express - Southern: 5 claims, $48K

Homes that flooded again and again

■ FEMA “severe repetitive loss” (1) ■ flooded 2+ times

of homes in flood zones
are insured

of all homes
are insured

No community discount. Modesto isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Stanislaus County.

Disasters that hit Modesto

5 federal disasters brought FEMA money here

Disasters the President declared that paid out in Modesto itself: aid to households, or repair grants to the City of Modesto.

Brought FEMA money into ModestoDeclared for Stanislaus County only

2023

Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides

$93K to the City of Modesto for repairs

2022

Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides

$417K to the City of Modesto for repairs

2020

Wildfires

53 households applied for aid

2017

Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides

$2.0M to the City of Modesto for repairs

2006

Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides

$129K to the City of Modesto for repairs

Stanislaus County has had 18 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often floods and severe storms.

Around Modesto

Modesto and the towns around it

Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

West Modestomostly inland floodingVery high

Bystrommostly inland floodingVery high

Riverdale Parkmostly droughtHigh

Airportmostly inland floodingHigh

Empiremostly inland floodingHigh

Modestomostly inland floodingHigh

Salidamostly earthquakesModerate

Parklawnmostly earthquakesModerate

About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.

Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. Modesto covers 42 census tracts, combined by population.

Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to Modesto’s own flood-insurance community; household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to the City of Modesto. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across Modesto total about $68.1M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.