Natural hazards · Vail

Vail, AZ natural hazards

Most of the natural-hazard damage FEMA expects in Vail comes from inland flooding, and overall the risk is very high for a U.S. community.

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 · OpenFEMA claims, aid & declarations

Expected damage

How exposed is Vail?

Very high

vs. U.S. communities

FEMA expects yearly storm and flood damage to homes and buildings in Vail to be higher than in 89% of U.S. communities, mostly from inland flooding and heat waves.

Inland flooding71%Heat waves20%Wildfire7%Everything else1%

By hazard

What Vail faces

Each hazard’s share of the damage FEMA expects here, and how that compares with the rest of the country.

Inland flooding

71% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 97% of U.S. places

Recorded about 13 times a year in the area

Heat waves

20% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 75% of U.S. places

Recorded about 9 times a year in the area

Wildfire

7% of expected damage

Well above average · higher than 97% of U.S. places

Lower here

HurricanesTornadoesHailWinter weatherEarthquakesLandslidesStrong windLightning

Not a risk here

Coastal floodingIce stormsCold wavesDroughtAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.

Flood insurance claims

Does Vail flood?

FEMA's records show no paid flood insurance claims in Vail.

of homes in flood zones
are insured

of all homes
are insured

No community discount. Vail isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Pima County.

Disasters that hit Vail

Federal disasters declared here

None of the disasters declared for Pima County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Vail itself in FEMA’s records.

Brought FEMA money into VailDeclared for Pima County only

Pima County has had 11 natural disasters declared since 1953, most often floods and fires.

Around Vail

Vail and the towns around it

Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

Vailmostly inland floodingVery high

Rincon Valleymostly inland floodingVery high

Tucsonmostly inland floodingHigh

About these numbers

How to read this page

An average, not a forecastFEMA’s National Risk Index estimates the damage 18 kinds of natural hazards cause in a typical year, from decades of records and models. A quiet decade can follow a bad year.

Compared by rate“Higher than N%” compares yearly damage as a share of what’s here, so a big city isn’t rated riskier just for having more buildings. Vail covers 1 census tract, combined by population.

Money that reached townFlood claims are matched to Vail’s own flood-insurance community; household aid to the registrant’s city; repair grants to Vail. FEMA’s model follows property values, so a place that recently lost many homes can rate lower than it feels.

FEMA’s expected losses across Vail total about $2.7M a year, counting buildings, people and crops.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025); OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Census tracts: U.S. Census Bureau.